Friday, September 22, 2017

A Compendium of Graham-Cassidy Flaws

Reports are that many U.S. Senators will be voting on Graham-Cassidy without knowing what is in the bill. Following is a handy-dandy compendium of what is in the bill and what are some likely outcomes:
1.) A line in the G-C bill says that it "intends to maintain access to adequate and affordable health insurance for individuals with preexisting conditions." Healthcare analysts and industry groups contend that significant leeway is given to DHHS and states to determine the definition of "adequate and affordable." The Center for American Progress, using data that the Centers for Medicine and Medicaid Services (CMS) employs to calculate transfers between insurers based on enrollees' expected costs -- the risk adjustment program -- and applied to a 40-year-old, finds that  asthma would draw a premium surcharge of $4,340; $5,600 for diabetes; $17,320 for pregnancy; $26,580 for rheumatoid arthritis; and $142,650 for metastatic cancer.

The waiver provision is similar to the so-called "MacArthur amendment" in the House-passed repeal bill, of which the CBO found that states accounting for 1/6th of the nation's population would choose to let insurers charge higher premiums based on health status; also, states accounting for half the nation's population would choose to let insurers exclude essential health benefits.

The Blue Cross Blue Shield Association has said of G-C: "The bill contains provisions that would allow states to waive key consumer protections, as well as undermine safeguards for those with pre-existing medical conditions."

2.) The states would be allowed to let insurers exclude essential health benefits. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, before the ACA introduced the requirement that all plans cover a defined set of basic services, 75% of individual market plans excluded maternity coverage; 45% excluded substance use treatment, and 38% excluded mental health care.

Allowing insurers to exclude basic service coverage should mean a significant rise in the millions now considered to be under-insured.

3.) States will be allowed to remove the protections that prevented insurance companies from putting lifetime caps on how much they spend on someone.

4.) The cap on federal Medicaid funding will cause states to cut back on traditional Medicaid funding.

5.)Insurers are not compensated for the reductions they must make in deductibles and other cost-sharing for low-income enrollees.

6.) There is no provision for revoking funding to a state if it fails to meet its commitments.

7.) The entire block-grant program depends on private insured participation. Insurers would face 50 different state regulatory and financing systems.

8.) Those states that have not accepted ACA funding and have not set up a system of exchanges, would be hard-pressed to put together a coverage program over the next two years. Medical organizations are saying that passage of G-C would destabilize the insurance markets.

9.) The elimination of the individual mandate removes the incentive for healthy people to purchase insurance, causing insurers to hike premiums and deductibles in order to survive economically.

10.) The fact that federal Medicaid funding goes only through 2026 under the G-C, means that a future Congress could fund Medicaid at a lower level  or even end it.

11.) Limiting ourselves to the state of Georgia, the Georgia Budget and Policy Institute estimates that about 400,000 Georgians receive marketplace subsidies. Nearly 1.8  million Georgians, or 29% of the state's population, carry a preexisting condition. The consulting firm Avelere Health says Georgia will lose $48 billion in federal funding from 2020 to 2036 if G-C becomes law.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Trump Legal Setbacks: Real and Potential

The judiciary seems to be the only branch of the government that can put any meaningfully restraint on President Donald Trump; although an argument can be made that despite their numerical weakness, Democratic lawmakers have been able to wrest policy victories from the GOP and Trump.
The Trump administration has suffered losses in two recent court decisions.

#U.S. District Judge Harry D. Leinenweber has ruled that Attorney General Jeff Sessions cannot withhold public safety grant money to sanctuary cities. Judge Leinenweber said that the city of Chicago has shown a "likelihood of success" in arguing that Sessions exceeded his authority with the new conditions.

#The 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has ruled that the U.S. Bureau of Land Management must provide more data to support its argument that coal makes no net contribution to climate change after it's burned in power plants.

#When Sarah Hucklebee Sanders advocated the firing by ESPN of a reporter who labeled Trump as a white supremist, she may have broken a law. 18 U.S. Code #227 makes it a crime to wrongfully influence "a private entity's employment decisions by a Member of Congress or an officer or an employee of the legislative or executive branch." The penalty could be imprisonment for up to fifteen years. (The law includes the President).

Sanders also advocated the firing of former FBI Director James Comey. Since Comey could be a witness in the investigation of Russian meddling in U.S. affairs, this could be considered to be a case of witness intimidation and/or obstruction of justice. If President Trump put her up to it, he could be subject to prosecution.

#President Trump retweeted a video showing Trump or a stand-in for him hitting a golf ball that hits Hillary Clinton in the back and knocks her down. Tweeters have lambasted him on several grounds, but the best one to me labels his retweet as "juvenile." It is disconcerting to have a juvenile as president.

#On September 17, Trump tweeted: "I spoke with President Moon of South Korea last night. Asked him how Rocket Man was doing." He also wrote: "Long gas lines forming in North Korea. Too bad!" Few North Koreans own cars, and private travel inside the isolated country is extremely restricted. Also, the last two rounds of U.N. sanctions imposed on North Korea did not include an oil embargo after China objected.

#Sam Clovis, a non-scientist nominated to be the chief scientist of the Department of Agriculture, has called climate change, "junk science."

*In June 2017, there were some 225,000 open  construction jobs in the U.S., up 31 percent from June 2016. Houston must find places to stay for the tens of thousands of construction workers needed and will need to pay then above-market wages, because it will need to lure them away from existing jobs.

*A Tulane and University of California, Berkeley, found that some 100,000 Hispanic workers thronged into the Gulf Coast region in the wake of Katrina, many of them undocumented.

#Word is leaking out of the White House that President Trump may soften his position on the Paris Agreement on climate change. It is a grave mistake for anyone to get too excited because Trump has adopted a position on an issue dear to one's heart. Wait awhile and Trump may adopt a position completely opposite to the earlier one. Consider that early this year Trump assured Dreamers that he has a "great heart" and they could  "rest easy" regarding any chance their status might be changed. Then he delighted his hard-core supporters by putting an end to DACA. That was followed by his sending to Congress the task of constructing a solution. That was followed by his "deal" with the Democratic leaders in the House and Senate to, at least, not deport the Dreamers. Although Trump had effectively agreed to let the Dreamers continue to live in the United States as before,  "Amnesty Don" tried to extricate himself from his conundrum by saying that he had not embraced amnesty nor a path to citizenship.

#The appalling cruelty of President Trump and GOP lawmakers is illustrated by: 1. Approximately 690,000 dreamers -- 800,000 is the most publicized number but apparently 110,000 Dreamers have forfeited that status -- have been forced to live a life of anxiety, wondering if they will be deported, or, at least, lose their work permits; and 2. GOP lawmakers have kept tens of millions of those insured under the Affordable Care Act in fear of losing their coverage by offering variant after variant of demon health care bills.

It is also worthy of mention in these measurements of cruel disregard that President Trump has kept 11 million undocumented immigrants on tenterhooks and many sleepless nights, as they worry about being deported, or family members, relatives or friends being deported, while they stay behind.    

Friday, September 15, 2017

Continuation of Excerpts From the Book Authored by Donald Jeffries

p. 40 - Only 3 percent of students at the top 146 colleges come for families in the bottom income quartile. Only 10 percent come from the bottom half.

p. 48 - A study by former Sen. Tom Coburn found that 4,000 millionaires paid no federal income tax in 2011.

p. 57 - Based on a February 2012 survey by the Salvation Army, some 27 percent of Americans think the poor are lazy and 43 percent said they believed "people living in poverty can always find a job if they really want to work."

p. 98 - The Institute for College Access and Success estimates that the number of college graduates in the U.S. working minimum wage jobs has risen by nearly 71 percent over the past decade.

p. 111 - Hewlett Packard CEO Meg Whitman, with a net worth of $1.7 billion, was paid over $15 million in 2012, while her company was eliminating nearly 30,000 jobs.

p. 113 - The Urban Institute said in 2010 that 3.5 million Americans, or about 1 percent of the population, had been homeless for a significant period of time.

p. 148 - CBS News reported on April 5, 2013 that "Roughly a third of U.S. states today jail people for not paying off their debts, from court-related fines and fees to credit cards and car loans." The Georgia-based Judicial Corrections Services, a private probation firm, piles additional fees on top of the defendant's debts.

p. 163 - Oil Change International estimates that the federal government provides the oil companies with as much as a trillion dollars in annual subsidies.

p. 172 - Bankruptcy has long been a tool that the rich employ, and the laws are such that it invariably works to their benefit.

p. 218  - Recent Social Security statistics show that 51 percent of American workers made less than $28,851 in 2014 and 40 percent made less than $20,000. In 2014, 71 percent made less than $50,000.

p. 219 - The 2016 Oxfam report revealed that the richest 62 individuals in the world possess as much wealth as the bottom half of humanity.

p. 220 - An AP 2013 study found that: "Four out of five U.S. adults struggle with joblessness, near-poverty or reliance on welfare for at least parts of their lives."

ADDENDUM:
* Mexico has pulled back from its offer of aid to the U.S. after the U.S. snubbed it for aid for the damage caused by the massive earthquake and Hurricane Katia, when it hit the Gulf states of Veracruz. The Mexican government noted that the U.S. embassy had taken nine days to respond to its formal offer.



Thursday, September 14, 2017

A Fact-Filled Look at U.S. Economic Conditions

Donald Jeffries has written a book filled with facts and figures  to illustrate how the richest have survived in the United States. Since the book lends itself to a summary of information, I will not use word-for-word quotations.. These are selective excerpts of what I feel is important information.

The book reference is: Donald Jeffries, "Survival of the Richest" (New York: Skyhorse Publishing, 2017).

p. xiii - A 2013 survey from Bankrate found that 76 percent of Americans are now officially living paycheck-to-paycheck. The survey found that only one-fourth possess enough money in savings to cover at least six months of expenses, cushion the loss of a job or unexpected illness, or deal with an emergency. 50 percent had less than three months of savings and 27 percent had no savings at all. A 2015 survey from GoBanking Rates found that 62 percent had less than $1,000 in savings.

In an article in the March 1, 2013 Minimum Wage Union Workers of America blog, after adjusting for inflation, 90 percent of Americans were earning less than what minimum wage workers made in 1950. When factoring in the productivity rate, the minimum wage should have been $28.56 per hour in 2010.

p. xv - The Census Bureau says 146 million Americans are either poor or low-income. The wealthiest 1 percent have more wealth than the bottom 90 percent combined. U.S. families with a head of household under age 30 have a 37 percent poverty rate.

p. xvi - The wealthiest 10 percent control 76 percent of the wealth and the top 50 percent control 99 percent.

p. 5 - By 2016, 'average' salary of major league baseball players was $4.4 million a year; an 'average' of $5.2 million for NBA players; an 'average' of $2.5 million for NHL players; and an 'average' of $2.1 million for NFL players.

p. 6- According to the Credit Swiss Global Wealth Databook, by the end of 2013, 75.4 percent of all wealth in the U.S. belonged to the richest 10 percent, and the bottom 90 percent owned only 24.6 percent of aggregate wealth.

p. 7 - Lloyd C. Blankfein, CEO of Goldman Sachs, received over $70 million in compensation in 2008, and his company received $10 billion in the bailout. J.P. Moran Chase's James S. Dimon earned nearly $28 million, while his company had received $25 billion in the bailout. Nine banks awarded bonuses of nearly $33 billion in 2008, and six of the nine paid out more in bonuses than they earned in profits.

p. 8 - Citigroup, which received 25 percent of the bailout money going to the nine banks, paid $98.9 million in compensation to Andrew Hall, head of their energy-trading unit.

p. 9 - GE, which paid no tax in 2010, paid an average of just 1/8th of a percent in taxes between 2002 and 2011.

By 2015, the ratio of CEO pay to worker pay was 204 to 1.

p. 12 - A Pew poll found that 43 percent of Americans born in the bottom fifth of the economic ladder never move up at all, and 70 percent never reach the middle rung.

The top 1 percent own half of all stocks in the country, while the bottom 50 percent own .5 percent of them, according to the Institute for Policy Studies. The 1 percent has only 5  percent of the collective personal debt.

p. 17 - Over 90 percent of small businesses have yearly revenues of less than $250,000. "Small Business Trends" reports that the "typical new business" in the U.S. is no longer in business five years after being founded. A 2014 study by Barclays found that only 21 percent of millionaires in the U.S. cited a business deal or profit as their source of wealth, versus 40 percent from around the world. The Wall Street Journal researched 60 big U.S. corporations and said they were keeping over 40 percent of their annual profits out of the country.

p. 18 - At a May 2013 Senate hearing, Apple revealed it had paid only 2 percent tax on its estimated $74 billion in profits.

p. 22 - Average compensation for a board of directors member at S & P 500 companies had risen to $276,667 by 2015.

I will continue with these excerpts from Donald Jeffries's book in my next blog.




Wednesday, September 13, 2017

The Fruits of Betsy DeVos

Betsy DeVos's heart must be beating harder as she learns about what is happening in Florida's school districts. DeVos has little regard for traditional public schools, nor does she have experience with public education. What most activates her heart are vouchers to private schools, and, especially, religious education.

In Florida, school districts will be required for the first time to send a portion of local tax revenues to charter schools; also, the law gives charter schools the flexibility to open multiple schools each year. The law funds a new initiative, called Schools of Hope, that transfers the lowest-performing public schools to charter school management companies.

Miami-Dade Schools may see a quarter of a billion dollars of its funds transferred to charter schools. [1]

Florida's  statewide voucher program, called a tax credit scholarship, cost state taxpayers over $600 million in the first ten years of operation, from 2002-2012, according to Fund Education Now, a state-based public school advocacy group. Much of that money may have been wasted, as more than 300 charter schools in Florida have failed due to poor performance.

80 percent of parents who use the vouchers send their children to religious schools. Only 25 percent of those using these vouchers transfer their children out of the lowest-performing schools. [2]

Florida ranks 41st on school funding, according to the Education Law Center and Rutgers Graduate School of Education.



ADDENDUMS:
*Steve Bannon told CBS's Charlie Rose that the Catholic Church and bishops "have been terrible about" undocumented immigrants. He suggested they were unable "to come to grips with the problems in the church" because they rely on undocumented immigrants to fill the churches and have an economic interest in "unlimited illegal immigration."

*President Trump may next attack those in "temporary protected status," a provision of immigration law that allows the government to grant temporary work authorizations and protection from deportation to undocumented immigrants from certain countries where life remains dangerous.

*DAMAC Properties, a Trump Organization partner, signed a $32 million contract  with the Middle East subsidiary of China State Construction Engineering Corporation.

*President Trump asked for deep cuts to the National Institutes of Health; however, the Senate Appropriations Committee approved a bipartisan bill providing $36.1 billion for the health institutes.

*An audit by the inspector general of the Interior Department  found that $84 million was improperly spent to help develop California's plans to build two giant tunnels to ship Northern California's water to Southern California. California's water districts, and not federal taxpayers, were supposed to bear the costs of the $16 billion project.

*The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities says that the Graham-Cassidy bill that would convert Obamacare into block grants for states, would result in a 34 percent cut in spending, compared to Obamacare over ten years. This cut would be mostly in Medicaid funding.

Footnotes
[1] Jeff Bryant, "Like Her Boss, Betsy DeVos Makes a Disaster All About Herself," Our Future.org, September 5, 2017.

[2] Ibid.


Wednesday, September 6, 2017

DACA Decision Deferred to Congress

President Trump made ending DACA  one of the first things he would do if elected president. He dithered for more than six months before partially fulfilling his promise; however, he didn't have the gumption to announce his decision on DACA by himself but farmed it out to the attorney general. He then handed the hot potato over to Congress, and then, as with many other issues, he gave no guidance as to how Congress should work out the details. Conveniently, Trump will have Congress to blame if nothing constructive is done.

Trump said he had a "love for these people and, hopefully, now Congress will be able to help them, nor do it properly." By saying that, Trump made a tacit admission that he couldn't help them, nor do it properly.

Trump's handing off DACA to Congress comes with a major caveat: If Congress can't do the job with DACA, Trump will revisit the issue. Trump has given no indication of what he means by "revisit" and thus has created uncertainty in Congress. If Congress decides to allow the Dreamers to stay in the United States and/or provides a legal path to citizenship, Trump can either sign the bill and break a crucial campaign promise, or veto it and risk an override.

President Trump has shown extreme cruelty in his treatment of the DACA matter by telling Dreamers early this year that they can "rest easy" about their status. Now he has put them in a very anxious state about what might happen to them some six months into the future.  Trump's harsh rhetoric in the campaign about the harm Dreamers were causing to the country and the subsequent anxiety he has raised among them is a far remove from expressions of love. When you have denigrated whole categories of people,  how can you be perceived as credible when you say you love everyone in a large category of people?

Most economists believe that reducing immigration will significantly hurt economic growth for years. Deporting the Dreamers will reduce GDP and reduce FICA taxes that fund Social Security. Dreamers are too young to receive Social Security benefits, with the possible exception of disability payments.  The Center for American Progress reports that 87 percent of beneficiaries are using their work permits and 83 percent of those in school are also working.

Conservative blogger Jennifer Rubin has, I believe,  the most succinct and accurate reaction to Trump's DACA decision: "Some in the media take seriously the notion that he is 'conflicted' or 'wrestling' with the [DACA] decision, as though Trump was engaged in a great moral debate." "That would be a first for Trump, who counts only winners and losers, never bothering with moral principles or democratic norms. The debate, if there is one, is over whether to disappoint his rabid anti-immigrant base or to, as is his inclination, double down on a losing hand."

Rep. Ideana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) tweeted: "After teasing #Dreamers for months with the tale of his 'great heart,' slams down on them. Some 'heart.' "

ADDEDNDUM:
*The recent statement by Sarah Hucklebee Sanders that President Trump will donate $1 million of his "personal" money to Harvey relief may not be accurate. Sanders cannot  say whether the donation will come from Trump personally or will come from his foundation. Foundation funding has a restriction against "self-serving" distributions and Trump would be violating that provision if he doesn't make the donation with a personal check.

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

The Ballyhooed Foxcomm Deal

The Foxcomm deal with the Wisconsin government has been much ballyhooed; however, it contains within it significant problems. Foxcomm will get $1.35 billion for building a factory complex that will employ 3,000 workers. "Incentives" for Foxcomm could hit $3 billion -- with $2.85 billion in taxpayer cash and another $150 million in various tax breaks -- if Foxcomm ends up employing 13,000 workers. The deal could work out to cost taxpayers $500,000 per job or as much as $1 million per job. Foxcomm has promised an average salary of $53,000 but that would apply to only the first 3,000 workers and would mix in highly paid managerial positions with assembly-line workers.

Another perk for Foxcomm is an exemption from regulations to protect Wisconsin's wetlands.

Between 1990 and 2015, a new Upjohn Institute study shows average "incentive" packages for businesses tripled in value. Upjohn researchers found that those who subsidized would likely have received the same results without the incentives.

Staying with the theme of enriching big business, Robert Borosage has thrown a lot of water on the push to drastically reduce corporate taxes. He points out that since corporate profits are at a record percentage of the GDP and revenue from corporate taxes a record low, this isn't exactly a compelling cause for corporate tax cuts. Corporations that already pay at the lower 20 percent rate Republicans are peddling, have cut, not created, jobs over the last nine years.

Borosage says that in all versions of the Trump tax plans, the richest 1 percent get one-half or more of the tax cuts. In the most recent plan, the top one-tenth of one percent get a tax break of over $1 million a year. When Borosage says all versions, he is talking about a Trump tax plan released in September 2015, a written version published in December 2015, and a change in tax rates done in the summer of 2016.

Borosage says that an estimated $2.5 trillion in corporate money, with $700 billion in taxes saved, is  parked overseas. Proposals to tax that money at 5 to 10 percent will not provide the trillions of dollars that President Trump promises. The last time the U.S. offered "repatriation" of overseas profits, U.S. companies used the tax giveaways to accelerate mergers, raise dividends, and buy back their own stock.

ADDENDUM:
*U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, claims that the American people view war as the last resort; however, it is the case that the U.S. is almost constantly at war with someone. In every decade since World War II, the U.S. has militarily attacked at least one nation that hasn't attacked it. Afghanistan is not an exception, because we attacked it for providing training facilities for Al Qaeda. The U.S. was in two major wars from the fall of 2001 to December 2011; also, there is no end date for military operations in Afghanistan. Anyone age 16 or under has never known a day when the United States was not at war.



Monday, September 4, 2017

Pricey Cost Estimates

Cost estimates for Hurricane Harvey and deporting Dreamers have started to come in. The very early estimates of fixing the damage caused by Hurricane Harvey were in the $10 to $35 billion range. Then Texas Governor Greg Abbott said that Harvey was "bigger than Katrina" and he estimated an overall cost to repair the damage as being $125 billion or more. Now costs of $180 to $190 billion are being voiced and these might be just the costs to the federal government. Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) is estimating a relief and rebuild cost of $1 trillion, of which the  federal government would pay $80 billion. If the $1 trillion cost is proven to be accurate, it is unlikely that the federal government would pay less than 10 percent. Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX) is talking about three waves of spending. The $7.85 billion in Harvey spending by the Trump administration is seemingly wholly inadequate but it  may be just a placeholder pending a better estimate of costs.

The "Arizona Republic" asked ICE what it would cost to deport someone who'd immigrated to the United States illegally, and learned that, on average, the agency spent $10,854 per deportee, or a total bill of over $8.5 billion. This is not the total cost of deporting the 700,000+ Dreamers,  as there would be a reduction in GDP and in the financing of Social Security. When Fox News host Chris Wallace confronted Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin with the figures yesterday, he could only reply that the economic consequences of deporting such a large number of people are very complicated.

The issue that always comes up when it comes to paying for the damages resulting from a great natural disaster, or in this case, paying to deport a large number of people, is whether or not cuts in other spending must offset the costs. As of this time there don't seem to be any lawmakers who have specifically called for offsets, however, other voices important to Republican fundraising have spoken out. The Club for Growth wants the Harvey aid to be offset; also, Dan Heller, Heritage Action's vice president, wants anything that is out of the scope of being "truly emergency in nature" to be offset. President Trump wants a stand-alone bill.

In Other News
*Senate Democrats are making a major push to defeat the nomination of Sam Clovis as USDA's under secretary for research, education and economics. Clovis has said that Barack Obama was being "given a pass because he is Black," has called Eric Holder (former attorney general) a "racist black," declared homosexuality a choice, and called progressives "race traitors" and "race traders."  Clovis is not a scientist, although the position calls for a scientist.

*North Korea is claiming that it has tested, with "perfect success," a powerful hydrogen bomb that could be fitted to an ICBM. President Trump has tweeted: "South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!" The one thing not mentioned is, of course, military force. Trump keeps repeating that all options are on the table; however, one option that he has taken off the table is diplomacy. He once declared the era of "strategic patience" to be over and now has declared any talks to be of no value.

*A judge has called out Trump's Election Integrity Commission for violating the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) by not fully disclosing public documents prior to their first meeting. The only sanction to be imposed against the commission is that it must disclose documents to the public before its September meeting.