Michigan: the Possible Outlier; Trump's Wise Moves

I. The Michigan Primary: a Possible Gross Misinterpretation
The media is going overboard with an interpretation that Bernie Sanders' poll-defying win over Hillary Clinton in Michigan is a possible game-changer, as all polling put Hillary far ahead. There is some reason to believe that the polls might not have been as far off as conventional wisdom now holds. A woman who called in to a talk show said she voted for Hillary but when she checked in with her woman friends, she learned that because they had talked over reports of John Kasich surging, and felt that he might be able to defeat Trump or hold him to a narrow victory. Given that Hillary seemed assured of victory, it is at least possible that tens of thousands who would have voted for Hillary, may have crossed over into the Republican primary and strategically voted for one of Trump's opponents. Of course, some may have voted for Trump, because he was their preferred Republican candidate.

The contention that a large number of Hillary supporters may have crossed over to meddle in the Republican primary doesn't rest on the experience of a single caller to a talk show. Hillary Clinton carried the African American vote by a margin of 65 to 30 percent in the Michigan primary; however,  given that Hillary had been carrying that vote by a ratio of about 4 to 1, and carried that margin on the same day in Louisiana, it suggests that there may have been a large number of African American cross-overs. The fact that Hillary had been far more active and aggressive in condemning the lead poisoning of Flint children, her African American standing should have increased, not decreased. There have been efforts to explain disparate African American voting in Louisiana and Michigan on the same day by claiming that there is a fundamental difference between Northern and Southern African Americans; but there has been no evidence presented to support that claim.

When I viewed on television the exit questions that were being asked, I didn't see any that asked if the voter had engaged in cross-over voting. We don't have any empirical evidence about the extent of cross-over voting in Michigan.

Future primaries will give a better reading if Bernie Sanders's victory in Michigan has been exaggerated.

II. Donald Trump's Closing Smart Moves
In the mode of giving the devil his due, Donald Trump has made some  smart moves in the past week of so. He made nice to Megan Kelly in the debate that Fox hosted, thereby lessening the negative impact that his characterization of Kelly had created. He made a specific and unequivocal disavowal of accepting the support of David Duke or the KKK. He has cleaned up his vulgar language at rallies, although he still encourages rough treatment of protesters. In the March 10th debate, Trump said he would not touch Social Security. He avoided the trap of calling for an increase in benefits, because that would have labeled him as a politician who makes big promises he can't fulfill. His position will likely trump that of Marco Rubio in voter reaction, who advocated an increase in the Social Security retirement age to 70 years old.

Ben Carson's endorsement of Donald Trump today very likely had its genesis in  Trump coming to his defense when the Ted Cruz campaign falsely told primary voters that Carson had ended his campaign. This claim, coming on the eve, or the day of, a primary election, was designed to bring Carson's evangelical supporters into Cruz's fold. Moreover, after Carson left the race, Trump was the only one of the remaining Republican candidates to praise Carson for the race he ran. Perhaps, Carson is angling for a post in a possible Trump administration, or he may have endorsed Trump out of gratitude for Trump coming to his defense and complimenting him when he, Carson, left the race.

The Stephanie Miller Show ridiculed the notion that many African American voters might vote for Trump based on Carson's endorsement. Carson, however, has many fervent white voters, sufficient numbers of which, following his endorsement, may give Trump a victory in a closely contested primary race.      

ADDENDUMS:
*George Packer observes that since the advent of the New Hampshire primary and the Iowa caucus, no one has been elected President without winning one or the other, except Bill Clinton. Packer contends that we now have "a reading of the American political temperature. What we've learned is that it's burning a lot hotter at the grass roots than either party's leadership seems capable of understanding." "Sanders' persistently surprising popularity shows that the Democratic establishment grasped the deep alienation of its voters no better than its Republican counterparts did." (Source: George Packer, "Living on the Edge," The New Yorker, February 8/15, 2016.)

*Jill Lapore, also writing in The New Yorker, makes an analysis that has similarities to what George Packer has said. "None of the candidates, not even the party favorites, are campaigning on behalf of their party; most are campaigning to crash it." "The party system, like just about every other old-line industry and institution is struggling to survive a communications revolution." "Today, Twitter has more than three hundred million users and two out of three Americans own smartphones." "The G.O.P. and the Democratic Party are reeling in the disequilibrium created by the latest communications revolution, the membership careening out of the party leader's control." "It's unlikely, but not impossible, that the accelerating and atomizing forces of this latest communications revolution will bring about the end of the party system and the beginning of a new and wobblier political institution." (Source: Jill Lapore, "The Party Crashers," The New Yorker, February 22, 2016.)

*Justice Samuel Alito agrees with Senator Mitch McConnell on not appointing a Supreme Court justice in 2015. He told a Georgetown Law School gathering that there is no constitutional provision on the size of the Court. This is a very tenuous reading of the Constitution; also, it reeks of a political motivation. Moreover, the Constitution reads that the President shall appoint a nominee to fill a vacancy and six justices have been appointed and confirmed in the last year of a President's term.

*Only 3% of Americans have paid family leave. Only 3% of Fortune 500 companies are run by women.

*Governor John Kasich signed a bill on February 24th, repealing all state funding for Planned Parenthood.

*For the second time, twelve churches and faith-based institutions have submitted cases of extrajudicial killings by Israeli forces to the U.S. Department of State. The use of U.S.-supplied weapons and equipment in military force conducted outside the borders of Israel violates what is labeled the Leahy Law.