Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Some Takes on Donald Trump's Misogyny and the Threats He Poses

I. Donald Trump's Misogyny Defined
1.) "We picked a President whose ex-wife once testified that he ripped out her hair and raped her, a man who's been accused of sexual assault and misconduct by almost two dozen women, a man whose own words corroborate his accuser's claims." (Jia Tolentino, in the November 21, 2016 The New Yorker.)

2.) "Trump's descriptions and treatment of women didn't seem to bother them." One woman told the reporter, Peter Hessler: "I'm a strong enough woman." Hessler writes that he "often heard similar comments from female Trump supporters -- in their eyes, it was a show of strength to ignore the candidate's crudeness and transgressions, because only the weak would react with outrage." (Peter Hessler in the November 21, 2016 The New Yorker.)

There are at least two problems with this approach: a.) a number of strong women did come out to no discernible effect; and b.) a number of women are afraid to come out, because they will not be believed or even savagely attacked.

3.) A woman named Reem Razek said: "When I saw the women who were defending him after the pussy-grabbing comments, it reminded me so much of the women in the Muslim Brotherhood who'd defend bad things that the Brotherhood guys did. They'd say, 'Men and women are different, and we have to accept that we're the weaker sex." "I think a lot of women struggle with the Stockholm-syndrome thing." ( In the November 21, 2016 The New Yorker.)

4.) "There are dozens of reasons why Trump won, but misogyny was a big part of it." "As "Vok" reported, one of the biggest predictors of Trump support was 'hostile sexism...'" "Those white women, like the rest of us, now live in a country where the public humiliation of women has the White House seal of approval." "Repressing women in the name of purifying a decadent culture is always part of the package, as it was in the fascist states of the 1930s."  (Katha Pollitt, in the December 5/12, 2016 The Nation.)

II. Some Foreign Policy and Domestic Threats Trump Poses
1.) A recruitment video released in January by Al Shabaab, the East African militant group allied with Al Qaeda, showed Trump calling for a ban on Muslims entering the U.S.: the video warned, "Tomorrow, it will be a land of religious discrimination and concentration camps."

2.) A Gift to Iran
Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has called Trump's vow to kill the Iran nuclear deal "a gift to Iran." "The hard-line forces in Iran are looking for a way in which this deal can unravel, but they won't be blamed for it." "This would be their ideal solution.The Iranians would say, 'You've abrogated your end , so we're going to reconstitute our nuclear program.'"

3.) The Economist Intelligence Unit, an economic-and-geopolitical-analysis firm, has ranked the prospect of a Trump victory on its top-ten risks to the global economy.

4.) Anthony Karydakis, the chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak, an asset manager, has warned that a Trump victory is now generally regarded as "a major destabilizing development for financial markets." Karydakis added: "If he ever even alludes to renegotiating the debt, we will have a downgrade of U.S. debt, and that event will cause a massive exodus of foreign investors from the U.S. Treasury market."

5.) The American Action Forum, a conservative Washington think tank, ran budget projections of Trump's plan: raids on farms, restaurants, factories, and construction sites would require more than ninety thousand"'apprehension personnel" -- six times the number of special agents in the F.B.I. Beds for captured men, women and children would reach 348,831, nearly triple the detention space required for the internment of Japanese-Americans during the Second World War.

The report estimated the total cost at six hundred billion dollars, which it judged financially imprudent.

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Will Trump Get to Zero on Honoring Campaign Pldges?

There is now a question if Donald Trump will repudiate all of his campaign pledges. He is ripping them up at a very fast pace. Then will Trump start restoring these pledges, as former supporters start to rebel, or circumstances arise that he finds conducive to going back to them? We are not yet into the Trump presidency and already the following pledges have been abandoned.

1.) Waterboarding
According to CNN, Foreign Affairs Intelligence Committee chair Mich Rogers (R-Mich.) has said that Trump's waterboarding remarks were just "campaign talk." Yesterday, Trump told the New York Times that he has changed his mind on waterboarding. What changed his mind? The retired general that he might appoint to be defense secretary told him that you can get better information by building trust -- he said he could do it with "a cigarette and a couple of beers." Trump could have gotten this point of view long ago by talking to any of the top attorneys in the armed services, who vigorously opposed the torture regime under George W. Bush, even at the risk of ending their careers. Or Trump could have talked to Senator McCain.

2.) Mexico Paying for the Wall
Newt Gingrich has said that Trump "may not spend very much time to get Mexico to pay for it [the Wall] but it was a "great campaign device."

3.) The Iran Nuclear Deal
 Mike Pence said in the campaign, along with Trump himself, that Trump will "rip up the Iran deal." But Trump adviser Walid Phares told the BBC on or about November 11, 2016: "He will take the agreement, review it, send it to Congress, demand that Iranians to restore (sic) [a] few issues or change [a] few issues."

4.) A Special Prosecutor for Hillary
When asked post-election on appointing a special prosecutor for Hillary Clinton for alleged wrongdoing, Trump responded: "It's something I haven't given a lot of thought, because I want to solve health care, jobs, border control, tax reform." Yesterday, Trump confirmed that Hillary has been through a lot and he didn't want to divide the country. Kellyanne Conway said that Hillary "needed time to heal." Heal from what? Her evil? Her loss of the election?

It is hard to erase that iconic image of Trump leaving his podium in the presidential debate, hovering over a seated Hillary and telling her that if he is elected president he will quickly appoint a special prosecutor to look into her possible criminal behavior.

5.) Entitlement Programs
Donald Trump has promised not to touch entitlement programs; however, when Rep. Paul Ryan said post-election that he would consider cutting Medicare, turning it into a "premium support" model, which would involve doling out federal private insurance, rather than the current single-payer model, Trump has remained silent.

6.) 45% Tax on China
In January 2016, Donald Trump told the New York Times that he would slap a 45% tax on China if it devalued the Chinese yuan -- Trump had made the same promise on several other occasions. Trump's senior policy adviser, Wilbur Ross, has denied, post-election, that Trump had ever made such a claim. Ross said that Trump would "threaten" China with a 45% tariff if it devalued the yuan by 45%. This is a distinction without a difference.

7.) The Wall
Donald Trump originally proposed to build a 2,000 -mile wall between the United States and Mexico. In the October 30, 2015 GOP debate, Trump sprang a big surprise by saying that the wall needed to be only 1,000 miles long. The only explanation that Trump gave for cutting the wall in half was that the natural terrain eliminated the need for a longer wall. It is obvious that Donald Trump didn't arrange for an aerial or ground survey to check the natural terrain.

The only description of any specificity that Trump has made for the type of wall construction is that it would be made of concrete and reinforced steel -- called rebar for short. The Trump camp has revealed post-election that some undetermined length of the wall will be made of fencing. A structural engineer consulted by the media company, Univision, has said that a fenced wall can easily be breached.

Univision's structural engineer has ruled out all other types of wall construction, except for concrete. Because concrete poured on site in a hot, dry climate tends to have adverse chemical reactions, he recommends precast concrete as the best choice. He told Univision that a wall 1,954 miles long, five feet underground and twenty feet high would use three times the concrete needed to build the Hoover Dam. Thus, Trump's 1,000-mile wall would use one and a half times the concrete. Two and one-half billion pounds of rebar wold also be needed.

The Washington Post has listed 76 promises that Trump made in the presidential campaign. Breaking 76 promises is a big order but Donald Trump is off to a strong start.

Will Trump Get to Zero on Campaign Pledges?

The Washington Post had identified 76 campaign pledges made by Donald Trump. Will he get to zero on them?

Friday, November 18, 2016

Mindboggling Big Military (concluded) and the Militia Movement

The last blog presented some of the most costly weapons-related items on the Pentagon's shopping list. The continuation of that list focuses almost exclusively on the non-lethal items needed to sustain the modern U.S. military. The list is taken from the special report found in the January/February 2014 issue of  Mother Jones magazine.

I. An Itemized Pentagon Budget (2012 figures)
$21.6 Billion - Petroleum and oil
 $4.0 Billion - Dairy and eggs
 $2.5 Billion - Nuclear reactors
 $2.5 Billion - Drugs and pharmaceuticals
 $1.2 Billion - Meat, poultry, and fish
$978 Million - Small-arms ammunition
$834 Million - Night-vision equipment
$783 Million - Fruit and vegetables
$738 Million - Bakery and cereal products
$554 Million - Nonalcoholic beverages
$547 Million - Land mines
$413 Million - Small arms
$294 Million - Sugar, confectionery, and nuts
$260 Million - Composite food packages (MRES)
$226 Million - Soap, toothpaste, and shaving preparations
$152 Million - Footwear
$103 Million - Bulk explosives
$102 Million - Live animals (not for food)
 $86 Million - Bolts and screws
 $85 Million - Soups and bouillons
 $85 Million - Tobacco products
 $73 Million - Coffee, tea, and cocoa
 $26 Million - Grenades
 $18 Million - Underwear and nightwear
 $16 Million - Badges and insignia
   $1 Million - Blood and blood products

II. A Well-Regulated Militia
This history of militias in the United States is found in: "Patriot Games," Mother Jones, November/December 2016.
1776: General George Washington gripes about the militiamen among his forces, "whose behavior and want of discipline has done great injury to the other troops."

1787: Constitutional Convention delegates clash over whether the militia should come under national control. As a compromise, the Constitution grants the federal government the power to call up the militia but leaves the appointment of officers to the states. The Second Amendment emphasizes that a "well-regulated Militia" is "necessary to the security of a free state."

1831: As mandatory militia duty becomes unpopular, states begin to abolish it. By the 1840s, many states set up an "organized" militia with actual responsibilities and an "unorganized" militia that exists in name only.

1903: The Militia Act of 1903 (also known as the Dick Act) beefs up state militias with federal funding and gives the feds the power to review state militias.

1916: The National Guard, which evolved from the organized militia, becomes part of the Army.

1971: William Potter Gale, a white supremacist and anti-Semite activist, forms a proto-"patriot" group called Posse Comitatus (Latin for "power of the country"), which purports that the highest level of authority is the county government. Gale says sheriffs who violate the Constitution should be taken to a "populated intersection" and "hung there by their neck." The group spreads across the West and Midwest by the 1980s.

1976: Congress passes the Federal Land Policy and Management Act, kicking off the Sagebrush Rebellion, which seeks to establish state and local control over public lands in the West.

1983: Posse Comitatus member Gordon Kahl murders two federal marshals trying to arrest him in North Dakota. He's later killed in a shootout, during which he kills a sheriff.

1990: President George H.W. Bush welcomes "a new world order," popularizing a phrase that conspiracy theorists equate with the coming of a global totalitarian government.

1992: White supremacist Randy Weaver surrenders after his wife, his son, and a US marshal are killed during a standoff at his cabin in Ruby Ridge, Idaho. The event energizes the far-right "patriot" movement, which includes armed militias.

1993: Federal firearms agents attempt to raid the Branch Davidian compound in Waco, Texas. The ensuing battle kills four agents and six Davidians. A 51-day siege ends when the FBI sprays tear gas in the building, which bursts into flames, leaving 76 people dead.

1994: Responding to the Brady Bill's mandatory five-day waiting period for handgun sales, Michigan Militia leader Norman Olson tells the New York Times, "We are ceasing to be a republic...When people sense danger, they will come together to defend themselves. That is what's happening."

1995: A truck bomb destroys the Oklahoma City federal building, killing 168 people, including 19 children. Bomber Timothy McVeigh had attended militia meetings. Militia members testify in Congress to defend their movement, but within a decade the number of militia groups drops from 441 to 35, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC).

2005: The Minuteman Project monitors the US-Mexican border, putting a media-friendly face on earlier militia efforts to catch undocumented immigrants.

2008: Following the election of President Barack Obama, the number of militia groups surges from 42 to 127 in one year. Mike Vanderboegh promotes the idea of the three percenters, named after the claim that only 3 percent of colonists were the backbone of he American Revolution.

2009: The Department of Homeland Security warns of an increase in right-wing extremism. After a fierce backlash from conservatives, it withdraws the report. Montana attorney and Army veteran Stewart Rhodes launches the Oath Keepers, a militia group that focuses on recruiting military members, police officers, and first responders.


Thursday, November 17, 2016

Mindboggling Big Military (cont.)

I. Where Does the Pentagon's Money Go?
The answer is that we don't know, because the Pentagon's books are such a mess that they can't even be audited, despite a 1997 requirement that federal agencies submit to annual audits.

The Government Accountability Office notes that the Pentagon has "serious financial management problems" that makes its financial statements "inauditable." The Pentagon's financial operations occupy one-fifth of the GAO's list of federal programs with a high risk to waste, fraud, or inefficiency.

Critics also contend that the Pentagon cooks its books by using unorthodox accounting methods that make its budgetary needs seem more urgent. The agency insists it will "achieve audit readiness" by 2117.

1997 - First time the Pentagon was required to be audited.
2017 - When the Pentagon says it will be ready for an audit.

II. Ways to Save a Few Billion
Here are 10 ideas for major cuts from an array of defense wonks, from the libertarian Cato Institute and the liberal Center for American Progress to the conservative American Enterprise Institute. A complete list of ideas can be found at motherjones.com/pentagon.

Proposal
Get rid of all ICBMs and nuclear bombers (but keep nuclear-armed submarines).
Estimated Savings - $20 billion/year

Retire two of the Navy's 11 aircraft carrier groups.
Estimated Savings - $50 billion through 2020

Cut the size of the Army and Marines to pre-9/11 levels.
Estimated Savings - At least $80 billion over 10 years

Slow down or cancel the F-35 fighter jet program.
Estimated savings - At least $4 billion/year

Downsize military headquarters that grew after 9/11/
Estimated Savings - $8 billion/year

Cancel the troubled V-22 Osprey tiltrotor and use helicopters instead.
Estimated Savings - At least $1.2 billion

Modify supplemental Medicare benefits for veterans.
Estimated Savings - $40 billion over 10 years

Scale back purchases of littoral combat ships.
Estimated Savings - $2 billion in 2013

Cap spending on military contractors below 2012 levels.
Estimated Savings - $2.9 billion/year

Retire the Cold War-era B-1 bomber.
Estimated Savings - $3.7 billions over 5 years.

III. An Itemized Pentagon Budget (2012 figures)
The Pentagon handed $361 billion to contractors in 2012. Some items on its shopping list:

$32.6 Billion   - Planes and helicopters
$10.4 Billion   - Guided Missiles
 $5.2 Billion    - Combat/assault vehicles
 $3.9 Billion    - Amphibious assault ships
 $3.6 Billion    - Space Vehicles
 $3.4 Billion    - Submarines
 $2.2 Billion    -  Combat ships and landing vessels
 $2.2 Billion    - Unmanned aircraft and drones
 $1.5 Billion    - Aircraft carriers
 $1.0 Billion    - Bombs

All of the above information comes from the special report on the military found in the January/February 2014 issue of Mother Jones. Although the information is two years old, it does provide a comprehensive look at the Pentagon's role in U.S. society.
     


Monday, November 14, 2016

Nuke Near Misses and a Mind-Bogglingly Big Military (cont.)

This is the last in a series of posts on nuclear near missiles occurring from 1961 through 2014; also, this post continues Mother Jones magazines's  detailed dissection of the Pentagon.

I. Continuing the List of Nuke Near Misses
2007: Six fully armed nukes go missing from Minot Air Force Base for 36 hours.

May 2008: A fire in a Minuteman III silo goes unnoticed for five  days.

Oct. 2008: The Air Force pledges to "sustain, modernize, and recapitalize" its nuclear capability.

Feb. 2010: A nuclear munitions crew at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico is decertified for failing safety inspections.

Oct. 2010: A computer glitch cuts off communications to 50 Minuteman III missiles for more than an hour.

2011: The reforms the Air Force initiated in 2008 are backfiring, notes an official report, "creating a climate of distrust."

July 2012: An 82-year-old nun and two accomplices break into a weapon-grade uranium facility in Tennessee -- she is sentenced to 35 months in prison for a breach that exposed "troubling displays of ineptitude."

Dec. 2012: A decertified missileer is placed on launch duty at Malmstrom Air Force Base.

April 2013: At Minot, 17 missileers have to surrender their launch authority due to performance and attitude problems.

Aug. 2013: The missile wing at Malmstrom fails its safety and security inspections; an investigation into drug use finds evidence that officers are cheating on proficiency tests.

Oct. 2013: The Air Force's ICBM commander is removed following his "inappropriate behavior" on a state trip to Russia.

Nov. 2013: RAND report: US missileers are suffering from burnout.

2014: Nine officers at Malmstrom are stripped of their commands and their CO resigns. The Air Force announces changes intended to discourage cheating and improve morale. (Source of this list: "That Time We Almost Nuked North Carolina," Mother Jones, January/February 2014.)

II. The Missing Peace Dividend
Defense spending (in billions of 2013 dollars) dropped sharply after earlier conflicts. But not this time.

Defense spending soared to $1,100 (billion) in World War II (1941-45); however, by 1948 it had dropped to a little under $100 (billion).

After the Korean War (1950-53) it had increased to about $475 (billion) and within about two years, defense spending had dropped to about $375 (billion).

The Vietnam War (1965-75) increased defense spending to about $575 (billion) but by 1975 it had dropped to about $375 (billion).

The Reagan military buildup (1981-89) jumped defense spending to about $600 (billion) and by 1998 it had declined to about $375 (billion).

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (2001-13)  increased military spending to about $750 (billion) and haves dropped very little in percentage terms since then. Strictly speaking, we have at least 5,000 Special Forces troops fighting a different war in Iraq and will have about 8,000 troops in Afghanistan through 2017 at least.

We now have what amounts to  a permanent standing army.

III. We're the World's 800-Pound Gorilla
The United States, with under five percent of the world's population, accounts for nearly 40 percent of global military spending. The FY 2017 Pentagon budget is nine times the corresponding budget of Russia and three times the current budget of China.

The National Priorities Project does an annual pie chart on discretionary spending, with the spending for the various activities of government sectioned off as slices. For the last few years, the Pentagon's slice of the pie has varied between 54 to 55 percent. Given that president-elect Trump has called the military "a disaster" and has promised a major buildup,  it is reasonable to believe that the Pentagon's share of the pie will increase at least into the low sixties.

IV. The U.S. Paid for Two Wars with Credit
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan cost $1.5 trillion (through 2013), that is about twice the cost of the Vietnam war in inflation-adjusted dollars. And that's just the "supplemental" military spending passed by Congress for the wars -- the regular Pentagon budget also grew nearly 45 percent between 2001 and 2010.

The funds to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan came entirely from borrowing, contributing nearly 20 percent to the national debt accrued between 2001 and 2012.

Contributing significantly to the militarization of the United States, the Pentagon follows a doctrine of Total Spectrum Dominance, a doctrine that means the U.S. must have superiority over every nation in every aspect of military warfare.

V. The Wartime Wage Gap
According to the special section on the military in the January/February 2014 issue of Mother Jones magazine -- from which much of the  material for this post has been obtained -- while the number of Americans in uniform increased three percent during the past decade, the annual cost per person doubled to around $115,000. "Congress approved multiple raises during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, but a look at base pay rates (what soldiers earn before add-ons like housing allowances and combat pay) shows that wartime wages didn't trickle down the chain of command. Some of that can be explained by 'brass creep' -- the swelling ranks of generals and admirals who earn high salaries and retire with cushy pensions."





Friday, November 11, 2016

Nuke Near Misses and a Mind-Bogglingly Big Military (cont.)

I. Terrifying Nuke Near Misses
This is a continuation of nuclear near misses following the release of two H-bombs from a B-52 flying over North Carolina.

1965: Fire in a Titan II silo kills 53 people in Arkansas

1966: A bomber laden with nukes breaks apart in midair showering a Spanish town with radioactive debris.

1968: The crash of a B-52 in Greenland spreads radioactive parts over three square miles.

1970: A Sandia National Laboratory safety expert demonstrates how "failsafe" nukes could detonate under extreme heat and stress.

1977: One of President Carter's military advisers is stunned by a briefing on the nation's nuclear war plan: "The president would be left with two or three meaningless choices that he might have to make within 10 minutes."

1979: A technician uploads a war games simulation to NORAD's computers, which signal a massive Soviet nuclear launch. Officials prepare for war. A false alarm is declared only after ground radars fail to detect any missiles and the first strikes never materialize. A flawed computer chip creates two similar scares the following year.

1980: A maintenance error causes the explosion of a Titan II missile in Arkansas, killing one, injuring 21, and hurling the warhead 200 yards.

1984: President Reagan in a radio sound check: "I'm pleased to tell you today that I've signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes."

1995: The launch of a Norwegian weather rocket convinces the Kremlin that Russia is under attack by the United States. President Boris Yeltsin nearly orders a retaliatory strike.

2003: Half of the Air Force's nuclear weapons units fail safety inspections, despite a three-day notice.

2006: Minuteman III nose cone assemblies are shipped to Taiwan, where they sit for two years before the Air Force acknowledges the error.

Another post carrying this listing of nuclear near misses through 2014 will follow.

II. A Mind-Bogglingly Big Military
This post continues a series of posts on the cost, spread and reach of the Pentagon. The information in this post goes back to the excellent eight-page special on military spending found in the January/February 2014 issue of Mother Jones.

"The $3.7 trillion federal budget breaks down into mandatory spending -- benefits guaranteed the American people, such as Social Security and Medicare -- and discretionary spending -- programs that, at least in theory, can be cut. In 2013, more than half of all discretionary spending (and one-fifth of total spending) went to defense, including the Pentagon, veterans' benefits, and the nuclear weapons arsenal." The National Priorities Project does an annual pie chart of discretionary spending, and for the most recent fiscal year, the Pentagon budget consumes 54% of discretionary spending.

The Mother Jones breakdown of spending for FY 2013 uses circles: Mandatory spending in red; Discretionary spending in orange; and Classified spending in black. The letters M, D and C will be used to distinguish among Mandatory, Discretionary and Classified spending.

1. Social Security (M) - $813 billion.
2. Defense (D) - $652 billion.
3. Medicare (M) - $504 billion.
4. TANF and income security (M) - $392 billion.
5. Medicaid (M) - $267 billion.
6. Net interest on debt (M) - $223 billion.
7. Veterans (D) - $140 billion.
8. SNAP and food assistance (M) - $105 billion.
9. Transportation (D) - $91 billion.
10. Education (D) - $74 billion.
11. Homeland security (D) - $55 billion.
12. CIA, NSA, and "black budget" (C) - $53 billion.
13. Housing assistance (D) - $44 billion.
14. Natural resources and environment (D) - $35 billion.
15. Science, technology, and space (D) - $31 billion.
16. Community and regional development (D) - $27 billion.
17. International aid (D) - $26 billion.
18. Farm subsidies (M) - $22 billion.
19. Energy (D) - $10 billion.
20. Children's health insurance (M) - $10 billion.

The next posts on this subject will deal with broader aspects of military spending and will be followed by individualized spending items.


Thursday, November 10, 2016

A Timeline for the "Lock Her Up!" Anti-Hillary Campaign; Voter Surrpression

1.) A Timeline for the "Lock Her Up!" anti-Hillary Campaign

2015
September: 'Infowars' debuts its "Hillary for Prison" T-shirt. "I'm proud of it," says Alex Jones.

December" Donald Trump tweets an image of a supporter in a "Hillary for Prison" T-shirt.

2016
June 2: Trump tells a rally in San Jose, California, "Hillary Clinton has to go to jail. She has to go to jail...She's guilty as hell."

June 11: An electronic road sign on Interstate 30 outside Dallas is hacked to read "Hillary for Prison."

July 16: A plane pulling an 'Infowars'-branded "Hillary for Prison" banner flies over Cleveland.

July 18: Colorado Senate candidate Darryl Glenn tells the Republican National Convention, "We know [Clinton] enjoys her pantsuits, but...what she deserves is a bright orange jumpsuit." Retired Lt. General Michael Flynn urges on the chanting crowd: "Lock her up, that's right. Yep, that's right: Lock her up!"

July 19: In his RNC speech, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie puts Clinton on trial. As the crowd shouts, "Lock her up!" he responds, "We'll get there."

July 20: "'Lock her up.' I love that," Florida Attorney General General Pam Bondi quips during her RNC speech. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker tells attendees, "Hillary Clinton is the ultimate liberal Washington insider. If she were any more on the inside, she'd be in prison." Google searches for "Hillary for Prison" peak.

July 30: At a town parade in Iowa, children throw water balloons at a "Hillary for Prison" float while a man in a Hillary mask and an orange jumpsuit dances inside a cage.

Early August: Conservative media buzzes with the story of a Mississippi boy who wore a "Hillary for Prison" T-shirt to provoke his liberal teacher.

September: Trump's campaign website sells "Hillary for Prison" pins -- three for $6. (Source: "Jail Bait," Mother Jones, November/December 2016.)

2.) Chief Justice Roberts Rolls Back Voting Rights
"In 2013, when Chief Justice John Roberts Jr. issued the most far-reaching Supreme Court decision on voting rights in the 21st century, he finally succeeded in gutting a civil rights law he has been fighting his entire career. For three decades, Roberts has argued that the United States has become colorblind to the point where aggressive intervention is no longer necessary -- and this case, Shelby County v. Holder, was the pinnacle of that crusade."

Echoing former justice William Rehnquist, for whom he once clerked, "Roberts has long insisted the United States has achieved a postracial, colorblind society, a point he emphasized in his 2013 majority opinion in [Shelby]." The Voting Rights Act had required that jurisdictions with a long history of voting discrimination submit any changes in voting procedure to the DoJ for "preclearance" to ensure the changes didn't have a discriminatory impact. Preclearance had blocked more than 700 discriminatory voting changes between 1982 and 2006 alone.

In her dissent, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg made the case that offending states had not grown colorblind. "She recounted how federal investigators had secretly recorded Alabama officials referring to African Americans as 'Aborigines' and openly plotting to block a ballot initiative they thought would increase African American turnout, as 'every black, every illiterate,' would be 'bused [to the polls] on HUD financed buses.'"

"After the 5-4 Shelby decision, states passed a torrent of new voting restrictions that overwhelmingly affected minorities. On the day the decision was handed down, Texas announced that the only two forms of state voter identification it would accept were a driver's license or a gun license -- a measure the DoJ had previously blocked. Georgia moved some municipal elections in predominantly minority areas from November to May, depressing turnout by nearly 20 percent in one instance. Alabama implemented a strict voter ID law -- and then shut down driver's license offices in every country where more than 75 percent of voters were African American. Perhaps the most blatant was North Carolina's omnibus voting law. Passed shortly after the Shelby decision, the law imposed strict ID requirements, limited the registration window, and dramatically cut early voting during times traditionally used by African Americans."

"Lower-court decisions rejecting the Roberts orthodoxy haven't fallen along ideological lines, either. The very conservative 5th Circuit Court of Appeals rejected Texas' harsh voter ID law. A George W. Bush appointee wrote the majority opinion. 'The lower courts are coalescing around a broad view of the Voting Rights Act's prohibitions on discriminatory results,' says David Gans, a civil rights expert at the liberal Constitutional Accountability Center."

When the Supreme Court blocked North Carolina's voting law, Chief Justice Roberts wrote that he personally would have allowed most of the laws to take effect.

Despite lower court decisions blocking certain provisions of restrictive voting laws in Texas, North Carolina and Wisconsin, 14 states now have new voting restrictions that didn't exist in 2012. (Source: Stephanie Mencimer, "Colorblind Justice," Mother Jones, November/December 2016.)

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Rev. Barber's Fusion Movement in North Carolina

Rev. Dr. William J. Barber II said that "we sketched a list of 14 justice 'tribes' in North Carolina: folks committed to public schools, a redress for black and poor women forcibly sterilized in state institutions, the public funding of elections, affordable housing and better funding for historically black colleges and universities. We had people battling discrimination in hiring, the death penalty, and the glaring injustice of our criminal-justice system." [1]

"Fusion history teaches us to see strength in coalition. Much like the First and Second Reconstructions, the forces fighting us on voting rights, educational equality, and racial disparities in the criminal-justice system are the same ones behind the attacks on LGBRQ rights. The advocates for huge tax cuts for the wealthy and greater burdens on everyone else are the same ones pursuing a new Jim Crow through voter-suppression bills and race-based redistricting. They are the forces refusing to expand Medicaid and driving the resegregation of our public schools."

Rev. Barber says" "Over the past decade here in North Carolina, we have witnesses the power of moral dissent to challenge the forces of injustice. Our adversaries have hijacked the concept of morality and shifted it to such personal matters as abortion and homosexuality." But Barber has warned that "progressives and liberals must learn not to throw away the moral high ground and walk away from  religious discourse."

"When Republicans spent $30 million to take control of state legislatures in 2010, we saw their plan in action: Here in North Carolina, they defunded state government through a flat tax that increased the burden on poor people while giving the wealthiest a windfall; denied federally funded healthcare to half a million people; rejected federal unemployment benefits for 170,000 workers and their families; made dramatic cuts to public education; deregulated industries with a demonstrated record of environmental abuse; proposed a constitutional amendment to deny equal protection to gay and lesbian citizens; and passed the worst voter-suppression bill that America has seen in half a century."

Footnote
[1] Rev. Dr. William J. Barber II, "The Progressive Moral Imperative," The Nation, February 8, 2016.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Trump Closes With Big Lie, and Pollsters Not Making Sense

I. Trump Closes With a Big Lie
On Friday, November 4, a story broke on at least Fox News that Hillary Clinton was going to be indicted for Clinton Foundation misdeeds. Donald Trump picked up on the story and begin telling his supporters that Clinton was going to be indicted and she would be spending the next few months fighting the indictment. While he was doing this, Fox News reported that the story was false and apologized for the "mistake." Yet three hours after the correction was made, Donald Trump was telling a rally that Hillary would be indicted. The following day Trump was still telling his supporters the same lie. I haven't been able to find any media condemnation of this contemptible behavior.

Also this past weekend, a Trump rally was disrupted when someone with an anti-Trump sign was accosted by Trump supporters and a melee broke out. Someone apparently shouted, "He's got a gun," and Trump was hustled off the stage by the Secret Service. During the commotion that followed, a reporter was beaten up. Although pro-gun zealots contend that guns help troublesome situations from developing and stop them when they do, apparently, in this situation, the report of a gun being present caused fear and apprehension, escalating the melee.

Kellyann Conway, Trump's campaign manager, blamed the melee on a Clinton infiltrator, but blaming Clinton for everything bad that happens should by now be recognized as the ravings of a demented person. The person who stirred up the audience with his sign was likely a NeverTrump individual.

II. Pollsters Not Making Sense
The presidential race in Florida is still being treated as being basically tied 45 to 45%, yet this claim is wildly inconsistent with the early voting. A total of 565,000 Hispanics have voted and when you include the Hispanics who have requested absentee ballots the total comes to 911,000 Hispanic votes. A Latino tracking firm has found that 83% of Hispanics support Clinton and 17% support Trump. If we assume a more modest 80-20 ratio, Clinton has a 546,600 vote lead over Trump.

564,000 African Americans have early voted, not counting yesterday's total. If Clinton got 90% of that total and Trump got 10%, Clinton gains 451,200 votes. Adding 546,600 and 451,200 equals a 997,800 vote lead for Clinton. Donald Trump will need to overcome almost a million vote lead in tomorrow's voting.

In  Ohio, a survey of early voting gives Clinton a lead of 48% to 41%. Clinton's early voting advantage among women is 55 to 32% and Trump's advantage among men is 53 to 39%, meaning that Clinton should have a sizable lead after early voting. More women than men vote in national elections.

ADDENDUM:
*Of the nation's 100 largest newspapers, 57 have endorsed Clinton and two have endorsed Trump.  

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Numbers and Percentages on Firearms, Prisoner Population, Depression and Welfare Reform

1) Gun Violence
11,364 - Gun deaths in 2016, as of October.

50% - Percentage of Americans affected by gun violence each day who are black men.

2,919 - Teens and children who have been killed or injured by guns as of October 2016.

1.4M - US firearm deaths from 1968 to 2011, compared with the number of US military deaths (1.2 million) in every armed conflict from the Revolutionary War to the invasion of Iraq. (Source: The Nation, November 7, 2016).

2) Prisoner Population
There are 2.2 million Americans in prisons and local jails. Many received long sentences for drug crimes.

191,476 - Number of federal prisoners. 46% of federal prisoners are drug offenders. More than a third of them had no or minimal criminal history.

Drug-Offender Sentencing - The average prison sentence for federal drug offenders is 11 years and 4 months.

Sentences imposed for drug offenses (2012)
1 year or less - 1%; 1-5 years - 22%; 5-10 years - 31%; 10-20 years; 34%; 20+ years - 13%.

Clemency Count
President Obama has commuted 774 sentences during his presidency, including those of 266 individuals serving life sentences.

Commutations by most recent 2-term presidents
13 - Reagan; 61 - Clinton; 11 - G.W. Bush; 774 - Obama (Source: Time, November 7, 2016).

3) Depression by the Numbers
3 million - Adolescents ages 12 to 17 in the U.S. who had at least one major depressive episode in the past year. This number has increased over time. In 2006, it was 7.9% and increased to 12.5% in 2015.

Depression experience by gender
Female - 19.5%; Male - 5.8%.

Anxiety by the numbers
6.3 million teens ages 13 to 18 who have had an anxiety disorder. That number represents 25% of he population in that age group in 2015.

Anxiety by gender
Female - 30.1%; Male - 20.3%. (Source: Time, November 7, 2016).

4) Welfare Reform
"In 1998, shortly after welfare reform, 65 percent of TANF [Temporary Assistance for Needy Families] spending went directly to cash benefits for poor families; today, that number has dropped to just over a quarter."

"Since 1996, the share of single mothers with neither income nor cash benefits has risen from 12 to 20 percent. Meanwhile, the number of families in deep poverty has grown from 2.7 million to 3 million."

The number of families living on $2 a day has risen 159% since 1996.

Less cash goes directly into poor people's pockets: in 1998 it was 65%; in 2014 it was 26%.

Percentage of poor families with kids getting benefits: in 1996 it was 68%; in 2014 it was 23%.
(Source: The Nation, October 10, 2016).

Welfare as we knew it
"When the 1996 welfare reform law created the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program, nearly 80 percent of its funding went to the traditional elements of welfare -- cash assistance, promoting work, and child care. Today, states spend nearly half their TANF funding on unrelated areas, including, as Marketplace has reported, crisis pregnancy centers and college scholarships for upper-middle-class kids." (Sources: Mother Jones, November/December 2016, Marketplace, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities).

5) Anti-Militia Laws
"Forty states have laws that limit or prohibit private military groups or paramilitary training; however, there is no record of these laws being invoked." (Source: Mother Jones, November/December 2016).

6) Google's Tax-Avoidance Journey
"Apple just received a rap on the knuckles from the European Commission for its tax-avoidance scheme ... but the company is far from alone in hiding and hoarding its profits. Google, Apple's Silicon valley neighbor, has an even more labyrinthine web of tax havens at its disposal. Follow Google's peripatetic 'intangible capital' on its worldwide journey:"

*"Google US transfers 'intangible capital' to Ireland Limited, registered in Ireland.

*Ireland Limited, for Irish tax reasons, technically resides in Bermuda, where its 'mind and management' are supposedly located.

*Ireland Limited licenses Google technology to affiliates in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. For example, Google France pays royalties to Ireland Limited in order to use Google tech.

*Ireland Limited then takes the profits from these royalty payments and transfers them to Google BV, a shell company in the Netherlands. This transfer is tax-free because both Ireland and the Netherlands are members of the European Union.

Google BV pays it all back to Ireland Limited (which is technically located in Bermuda, remember?)

*In Bermuda, the corporate tax rate is a big, fat O percent. End result: Google's effective tax rate on foreign profits is in the single digits because it all happens in Bermuda. Ah, paradise..." (Source: Julia Mead, "How to Make a Double Irish Dutch Sandwich, The Nation, November 7, 2016).

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

A State-by-State Breakdown of Firearms Possession

A Percentage Breakdown of Households Possessing Firearms State-by-State

Alaska                  -    61.7                                     Utah                    -   31.9

Arkansas              -   57.9                                      Georgia               -   31.6

Idaho                   -   56.9                                      Oklahoma           -   31.2

West Virginia      -   54.2                                      Virginia               -   29.3

Wyoming            -   53.8                                      Vermont              -   28.8

Montana             -   52.3                                      North Carolina    -   28.7

New Mexico      -   49.9                                      Washington          -   27.7

Alabama            -   48.9                                       Pennsylvania       -   27.1

North Dakota    -   47.9                                       Missouri              -   27.1

Hawaii              -   45.1                                       Oregon                -   26.6

Louisiana         -   44.5                                        Illinois                -   26.2

South Carolina -   44.4                                       Massachusetts     -   22.6

Mississippi      -   42.8                                        Maine                 -   22.6

Kentucky        -   42.4                                        Maryland            -   20.7

Tennessee       -   39.4                                        California           -   20.1

Nevada           -   37.5                                        Nebraska            -   19.8

Minnesota      -   36.7                                        Ohio                   -   19.6

Texas             -   35.7                                        Connecticut        -   16.6

South Dakota -  35.0                                        New Hampshire -   14.4

Wisconsin     -   34.7                                        New Jersey         -   11.3

Colorado       -   34.3                                       New York           -   10.3

Iowa             -   33.8                                        Rhode Island      -    5.8

Indiana         -   33.8                                        Delaware            -    5.2

Florida         -   32.5

Arizona       -   32.3                                        Michigan            -   34.7

Kansas        -   32.2                                        DC                      -   25.9

Michigan was inadvertently left out of the sequence.

One of the striking features of this percentages of firearms by state households is that of the states with the highest percentages of firearms in households, only two, West Virginia and Alabama, are east of the Mississippi River. No northeast state is in the top 30, with Vermont coming in at 31 and Massachusetts at 38. The six states with the lowest percentages of firearms are all located in the northeast.

FBI indexes of violent crime annually show the northeast states as having the lowest levels of violent crime in the nation; therefore, there is a seeming correlation between firearms percentages and rates of violent crime.

Th four states that are usually put in the Deep South -- Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina -- all rank among the 13 states with the highest percentages of firearms possession. If we include Georgia as a Deep South state, all five of these states are in the top 30. In FBI statistics on violent crime rates, the South consistently ranks as the region with the highest rates.

Four of the seven states  with the highest percentages of firearms possession are in the far West -- Idaho, Wyoming, Montana and New Mexico -- and that my be due to sparse population concentrations and plenty of hunting territory.


       






Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Vandal in Chief

Vandal in Chief
Adam Haslett says that Donald Trump is causing us to lose "whatever frayed threads of decency" still hold "American political life together." He adds that "there is so little fellow feeling left among us these days that we are compelled to seek it in our national leader." "Indeed, his (Trump's) skill is precisely this: to create an entire national theater of shame in which he induces that very emotion in his followers, on the one hand, while on the other saving them from having to acknowledge its pain by publicly shaming others instead." "His recent misogynist tirade against a former Miss Universe is just one in a series of instances in which he has figuratively offered up the bodies of women for public denunciation." "Just as physical violence monopolizes attention in real time, so theatrical and rhetorical violence is in the political spaces." [1]

"And thus we arrive at the dominant trope of the endless attempts to account for Trump's rise: the seething, racially tinged anger of the white working class." "Yes, Trump is inciting racial hatred and mainstreaming white- supremacist politics more directly than any of his Republican predecessors dared to do. But for all the attention this does and must receive, it is not that he is doing." What Trump has taken advantage of is "not so much as raw anger, but rather its more basic predicate: the shame of being lesser than."

"Operating under the delusion that Trump and Clinton are equally bad options, some anti-Trump conservatives have refused to vote, or pledged to support a third-party candidate. That some cannot testifies to just how poisonous is the partisanship in our country, to the point that even conservatives who acknowledge Trump's unfitness cannot bring themselves to admit that Clinton represents an even marginal improvement. Any conservative alert enough to have joined Never Trump must  wake up and realize that it's his or her civic duty to protect he country from the ravages of a megalomaniac by voting for Hillary Clinton." [2]

ADDENDUMS:
*"Our arrogance and barbarism in maintaining the American empire has earned us the hatred of most of the world. We are not 'the golden city on the hill' but a monstrous rogue nation." [3]

*"But Trump has embraced and normalized the political fringe in unprecedented ways -- and that could have far-reaching effects." A CNN poll showed that his support among likely GOP voters nearly doubled once he started talking about the birth certificate. [4]

*Hides account for only about 3 percent of the market value of hogs and cattle, which are mainly raised for their meat. 'More than 60 percent of the world's cowhide and leather comes from developing countries." The proportion of sheepskin is even higher. [5]

Footnotes
[1] Adam Haslett, "Vandal in Chief," The Nation, October 24, 2016.

[2] James Kischick, "Danger of Trump transcends politics," Albuquerque Journal, October 22, 2016.

[3] Letter to the editor by Al Salzman, The Nation, October 24, 2016.

[4] Tim Murphy, "Conspiracy Theorist in Chief," Mother Jones, November/December 2016.

[5] Bob Schildgen, "Hey Mr. Green!" Sierra, November/December 2016.