Rick Wilson, Never-Trumpster and once a Republican pollster, has written a book in which he identifies Trump as the focal point where good ideas go to die. Recent developments show how toxic Trump is proving to be to the nation and the world.
I. Deficit Creator
The U.S. Treasury Department found that the budgetary deficit widened in FY 2018 to $779 billion, from $666 billion in FY 2017, or a 17 percent increase from year-to-year. The budgetary deficit is on pace to top $1 trillion a year before the next presidential election. The deficit for FY 2018 is the largest since 2012, when the economy and federal revenues were still recovering from the depths of the recession. Falling revenues were a far larger contributor to the rising deficit than higher spending. Corporate tax revenues fell more than a third from a comparable period a year before -- from $297 billion to $205 billion.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytic, has said: "There is noting to suggest the tax law is lifting investment in any substantive way, at least so far." Zandi says that a big chunk of the tax windfall has gone to shareholders in the form of fatter dividends and bigger share buybacks. According to Marketwatch, stock buybacks are up 22 percent this year. Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, says business debt as a percentage of GDP is at the highest level ever in an expansion.
The bottom line is that businesses only expand when there is demand. Since wage growth has been stagnant for many years, and since wage growth in the past year has been equaled by the percentage increase in inflation, there is insufficient demand to spur business growth.
II. Birthright Under Attack
The 14th Amendment reads on citizenship, as follows: "All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and the State wherein they reside." Donald Trump has wanted to strike birth in the United States as a condition for citizenship. He now contends that he can strike it through an executive order. His argument hinges on the phrase: "subject to the jurisdiction thereof," which he apparently believes illegal aliens are not subject to the jurisdiction of the United States. If an illegal alien commits a crime, he/she is subject to being prosecuted for that crime. The word "born" is not followed by any qualifier, such as "unless" and then given a condition in which being born would not be sufficient.
President Trump believes that he can do almost anything by executive order, citing a national security rational when pressed on his authority. Thus, he cites national security as the authority for imposing tariffs on imported automobiles. There is a high bar for amending the Constitution. Other presidents have not tried to challenge that high bar through specious reasoning.
III. Reneging on the INF Treaty
President Trump is proposing to pull the U.S. out of the INF Treaty, which prohibits the development and deployment of nuclear missiles in the intermediate range. Trump is a ferocious foe of international treaties, and he has pulled the nation out of the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris agreement on global warming.
Ratification of a treaty requires a 2/3's vote in the U.S. Senate. The ratified treaty becomes part of the "supreme law of the land," and can only be done by the Congress and the president, or at least by a vote of the Senate -- at least based on pre-Trump thinking. Thomas Jefferson said: "Treaties being declared, equally with the laws of the United States, to be the supreme law of the land, it is understood that an act of the legislature alone can declare them infringed and rescinded." If Trump can unilaterally withdraw from the INF, could he also withdraw from NATO, the NEW START Treaty, and the United Nations?
There are reasons other than legal ones not to kill the INF Treaty. U.S. withdrawal opens the door for Russia to deploy more missiles of concern. The U.S.does not need new and costly INF Treaty-noncompliant missiles. NATO does not support a new INF Treaty-range missile in Europe. U.S. withdrawal does not bring Russia back into compliance. Withdrawal would not counter China, which is not a party to the Treaty. The NEW START Treaty will expire in 2021 if not extended, and killing INF would make it harder to extend it.
The U.S. does not have clean hands in this matter, as its nuclear defense missiles could be used offensively.
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